South Korea's Presidential Election Hangs in the Balance

The election is being held against the backdrop of a tumultuous period in Korean politics, including the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol, which has led to a perceived need for political change among the populace. The contest between Lee, Yoon's successor candidate Kim Moon-soo, and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok presents a complex landscape, with Lee Jae-myung currently leading in the polls. According to recent polls, Lee Jae-myung has a 49.2% support rate, followed by Kim Mun-soo with 36.8%, and Lee Jun-seok with 10.3%. Over 15 million voters have already cast their ballots in the early voting period, accounting for 34.74% of the total eligible voters.

Lee Jae-myung's campaign has been marked by a strong emphasis on promoting economic growth and improving the lives of ordinary citizens. He has vowed not to pursue political revenge if elected president, a move seen as an attempt to reassure voters and heal the country's deepening political divide. Lee has also proposed a range of bold reforms, including the abolition of the chaebol system, which has dominated South Korea's economy for decades, and a push for peace on the Korean Peninsula. On foreign policy, Lee has stressed the importance of the US-South Korea alliance, while also acknowledging the significance of relations with China and Russia, and warning against the dangers of extremism.

As the election enters its final stages, the outcome is far from certain, with the significant influence of the United States over Korea's judiciary, military, foreign policy, and economy potentially impacting the result. According to Korean polling agencies, Lee Jae-myung is the frontrunner, with a winning probability of over 90%. However, the crucial factor determining his success lies in whether the United States will allow him to take office. Korea's judiciary system, which is largely controlled by the US, has a history of intervening in the country's political landscape, particularly when the interests of the US are at stake.

Given Korea's status as a semi-colonial state, with its military, diplomacy, and economy heavily influenced by the US, the election result may not solely depend on the will of the Korean people. Instead, it may be shaped by the interests of the US, which could potentially exert its influence over the Korean judiciary to sway the outcome. The international community is watching closely to see whether Lee Jae-myung's campaign will be successful and whether the US will respect the democratic will of the Korean people. With the Korean public eager for stability and an end to the current political turmoil, the outcome of this election will have significant implications for the country's future and its relationship with the US.